State whether you agree with their choice as the most likely scenario to occur and the advice that they have given to prepare Shell to succeed in the face of likely government impacts. Justify your critique of your peer’s scenario advice and support your justification with scholarly research cited in APA format.
-2 Pages (one for each discussion)
-APA format and citations
-2 references
Discussion 1
Which of these scenarios do you think is most likely to occur? Defend your choice by analyzing it in
the context of the deep historical forces outlined in the textbook.
From the two scenarios in the textbook, I feel that the Scramble scenario would be the one
that would take place for the future. With the current political scene including the presidential
nominees, I don’t feel that the country could come together to change the world or even to change the
country. From the textbook an environmental issue for the country is that human institutions have
overwhelmed the ability of ecosystems to cleanse and regenerate (Steiner, 2012). Our environment
and ecosystem would need to be a bigger priority for businesses and the government so that we can
successfully protect our land.
How does Shell utilize business teams in this process?
Shell is able to utilize business teams with their scenarios by seeing what they can do to
prepare for the future. This allows them to work together and become profitable and have higher
profits then it’s competitors (Steiner, 2012). They are able to see both the Mountain and Ocean
differences and see what makes more sense for the different teams.
What advice would you give Shell to prepare for its future to succeed in the face of likely
governmental impacts?
The advice that I would give to Shell is to continue using their scenarios to see what could
potentially happen in the future. This would allow them to prepare for the future and to see where
they would need to prepare more. They would need to keep different departments involved and to
make sure they are aware of all government laws and changes made.
References:
Steiner, J. & Steiner, G. (2012). Business, government and society: A managerial perspective. (13th
ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Retrieved
fromhttps://mbsdirect.vitalsource.com/#/books/125978598X/cfi/6/6!/4/2@0:0
Discussion 2
With regard to the Shell scenarios, mountains vs. ocean, I believe that the mountain
scenario has been occuring up until this point, but that the ocean scenario will be
necessary to sustain a growing population, economy and environmental/resource
contraints (Shell, 2013). Thinking outside of the box, reaching out to the people to
increase innovation and sustainability, will be crucial. Business as usual will have to
conform to varying energy resources, a changing economy and a society that cries for
better. I have never been of the mentality that it is either/or, but instead, an integration
of what has currently worked with what we know will need to work in the future. I
appreciate the Shell scenarios and am quite impressed with the incredible detail they
are made up of. They spark conversations around strategic innovation.
Shell utilizes business teams, related to these scenarios, by selecting issues, analyzing
areas of concern, organization the scenario around a logical concept and focusing the
scenario in one direction (Schoemaker & Van Der Heijdan, 2012). Strategic vision lays
the foundation for these scenarios and when it comes times for implementation, Shell
focuses on team learning and involvement. It was noted, however, that turnover of staff
can make it difficult to implement vision when the knowledge centers move around the
company and do not stay in one place.
Advice that I would give Shell to prepare for its future to succeed in the face of likely
governmental impacts would be to be open for the ride, always have alternative plans
(mountain vs ocean) and have a strong strategic team that can efficiently move through
the stages of scenario building to implementation to allow for softer impact of these
governmental influences.
Schoemaker, Paul J.h., and Cornelius A.j.m. Van Der Heijden. "Integrating Scenarios
into Strategic Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell." Planning Review 20.3 (1992): 41-46.
Web. 2016.
Shell. (2013). New lens scenarios. Retrieved on August 11, 2016
from http://s01.static-shell.com/content/dam/shellnew/local/corporate/Scenarios/Downloads/Scenarios_newdoc.pdf
